Every investment firm has a story about how its judgment was formed. Ours was formed in complexity.
Over two decades of investing across cycles and geographies, especially in frontier markets, we have learned that the markets with the most obvious risk often teach the most durable lessons. Capital is scarce. Liquidity can evaporate. Currency moves can overwhelm local returns. Policy can change quickly. In that environment, it is difficult to hide behind a good story for long.
In the early years, it was tempting to think in broad regional narratives. Frontier markets were sometimes framed as a single rerating story, and individual frontier markets were treated as a single valuation opportunity. Experience made us more careful. Frontier markets, like the world, are not a monolith. They are a mosaic of countries, cultures, currencies, regulators, companies, and management teams moving in different directions. The same is true across emerging markets and increasingly across a more fragmented global economy.
The lesson was simple but learned the hard way: Macro matters enormously, especially when returns are measured in U.S. dollars. In challenging environments, a small number of exceptional businesses can still compound value over cycles. Many companies merely ride favorable macroeconomic waves. The best ones build enough trust, relevance, and resilience to keep growing when the tide turns.
The pattern that travels
Over time, we have studied the firms that endure and identified a set of common traits. They are led by aligned management teams with disciplined capital allocation. They earn the right to grow by making important products and services more affordable and accessible. They convert scale into better pricing, wider distribution, stronger retention, and deeper customer trust. Over time, trust becomes a habit. Habit becomes loyalty. Loyalty can become a moat.
This pattern does not belong to a single country or region. It travels. We first saw it in frontier markets, where the contrast was stark. Businesses that could survive currency volatility, weak infrastructure, political uncertainty, and uneven access to capital had to be unusually practical. Once the pattern became clear, it appeared elsewhere: in Asian manufacturing ecosystems, African mobile money platforms, Latin American digital platforms, and select global technology franchises serving value-conscious customers in emerging markets.
That is why Olduvai should not be understood as a traditional emerging-markets-only investor. Our opportunity set is global, and our lens was shaped by emerging and frontier markets.
A wider aperture, not a new identity
The equity strategy has evolved alongside the opportunity set. We began closer to frontier public markets because that is where our experience was deepest and mispricing was often most visible. Over time, the same questions led us into a broader global universe. Where is demand growing? Where is affordability unlocking access? Where are companies building ecosystems that customers rely on? Where are investors overreacting to country risk, sector narratives, or short-term uncertainty? Where does valuation leave room for reality to exceed expectations? That evolution is intentional. We do not want to be trapped by old labels, nor do we want to discard the experience that gives the strategy its edge. The phrase we keep coming back to is simple: global investors with an emerging- and frontier-markets lens.
This lens shapes how we evaluate companies. We look at where revenues are earned, not just where a company is listed. We ask how currency, regulation, politics, and capital flows could affect realized returns. We want to know whether a business can grow without relying on ideal conditions. We are wary of companies that screen cheap but lack durability. We are also wary of high-quality companies whose valuations already assume a perfect future.
Benchmark-aware, not benchmark-bound
Global benchmarks often reflect where capital has been, not where opportunity is emerging. They can become concentrated in a handful of countries, sectors, or mega-cap companies. They can also overlook businesses whose economics matter more than their index weight. We are aware of benchmarks because clients need reference points, but we do not let them define our hunting ground.
Our work starts with the business. What does the company do for the customer? Why does the customer choose it? What makes the economics durable? What could invalidate the thesis? What return is needed to justify the risks? What would cause us to change our minds?
That discipline is deliberately repeatable. It allows us to compare very different companies across countries and sectors without forcing them into narrow categories. A mobile money platform in Africa, a battery leader in China, a software platform in the United States, and a payments network in Latin America may seem unrelated at first glance. The common question is whether each can improve access, deepen usage, strengthen economics, and compound value over time.
The core remains unchanged
The world may evolve. The investment universe may widen. The portfolio will change. But the core discipline remains the same: own exceptional businesses that can compound through cycles, buy them at sensible valuations, and assess real-world risks before they become surprises.
Navigating complexity in challenging markets taught us that enduring lesson.